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    2017-2021年中國閥門行業發展前景及規模預測分析
    來源: | 作者:pro3c65e5 | 發布時間: 2017-09-14 | 5826 次瀏覽 | 分享到:

    (一)發展因素分析

    1、有利因素

    (1)核電“十三五”規劃拉動核電閥門的市場需求

    核電作為公認的清潔能源,隨著核電技術的發展,其安全性與經濟性得以提升,逐漸受到人們推崇。核電閥門是核電項目中用量較大的設備,隨著行業的快速發展,核電閥門的需求規模將不斷擴大。

    根據《“十三五”核工業發展規劃》等文件,到2020年,核電運行裝機容量爭取達到4,000萬千瓦;核電年發電量達到2,600-2,800億千瓦時。在在建和運行核電容量1,696.8萬千瓦的基礎上,新投產核電裝機容量約2,300萬千瓦。同時,考慮核電的后續發展,2020年末在建核電容量應保持1,800萬千瓦左右。

    (2)石化專用閥、超低溫閥門等產品市場需求廣闊

    我國石油石化行業正朝著大型化和規?;较虬l展,未來5年內仍將保持可持續發展,國內數十套千萬噸級煉油裝置和百萬噸級乙烯裝置面臨新建和改擴建,同時,石化行業面臨轉型升級,如加氫提質、三廢回收利用等節能環保項目很多,成為石化用閥門、法蘭及鍛件新的市場空間。隨著清潔能源的推廣應用,液化天然氣(LNG)的普及使用將會得到進一步重視,超低溫閥門的需求也將呈現大幅增長。我國超(超)臨界火電機組關鍵閥門長期依賴進口,不僅增加了電力建設費用,而且不利于國內閥門制造業的技術進步。在大型燃氣輪機方面,國家也在投入較大人力、財力鼓勵引進、消化、吸收和創新,改變大型燃氣輪機及其關鍵設備依賴進口的局面。在此背景下,石化專用閥、超低溫閥門、超(超)臨界火電機組用真空蝶閥、大型燃氣輪機蒸汽再熱閥等產品將面臨較為廣闊的市場需求。

    (3)中端工業閥門市場較為成熟

    中端工業閥門市場的主要產品為使用環境較為寬松的工業閥門,一般為碳鋼或不銹鋼閥門,面向這一市場的閥門產品市場需求量大,需要達到工業級的質量要求,技術含量較高,且終端客戶普遍設定合格供應商資格,因此存在一定的行業進入障礙,競爭水平低于低端工業閥門和民用閥門市場,利潤水平較高。我國閥門行業的一些大型企業,由于進入國際市場較早,在生產技術和生產工藝方面較為成熟,并且與很多國際級的客戶建立起了較為穩定的合作關系,已經在中端閥門市場中占有較為重要的地位。

    2、不利因素

    (1)行業整體市場集中度較低

    全球范圍內,閥門行業從業企業數量眾多,總體上看競爭較為激烈。以全球視角來看,國際領先閥門企業大多已經登陸資本市場,經歷了利用資本市場推動和實現行業整合的過程。相比之下,國內閥門企業整體規模偏小,即便排名前列的行業領先企業也大多沒有登陸資本市場,缺少長期資金支持,以實現行業整合。

    (2)我國大部分閥門企業仍處于行業的低端市場

    低端工業閥門和民用閥門市場的主要產品為鑄鐵閥門和青銅閥門,面向這一市場的閥門產品需求量大,技術含量低,進入門檻不高,充斥了大量的家庭式、作坊式的小閥門生產企業,市場競爭程度最高,利潤水平較低。目前,國內90%以上的閥門出口企業屬于零件生產商或貼牌生產商,其中,相當多的企業處于低端工業閥門和民用閥門領域。

    (二)產量預測分析

    2017年1-3月,我國閥門產量為2,047,425噸,同比下降2.68%。

    綜合以上因素,中投顧問發布的《2017-2021年中國閥門行業投資分析及前景預測報告》預計,2017年我國閥門產量將達到820萬噸,未來五年(2017-2021)年均復合增長率約為1.97%,2021年將達到886萬噸。


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